A Nonlinear Theory for El Niño Bursting

Timmermann, Axel, Abshagen, Jan and Jin, F.-F. (2002) A Nonlinear Theory for El Niño Bursting Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 60 . pp. 152-165.

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A new mechanism is proposed that explains two key features of the observed El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon—its irregularity and decadal amplitude changes. Using a low-order ENSO model, the authors show that the nonlinearities in the tropical heat budget can lead to bursting behavior characterized by decadal occurrences of strong El Niño events. La Niña events are not affected, a feature that is also seen in ENSO observations. One key result of this analysis is that decadal variability in the Tropics can be generated without invoking extratropical processes or stochastic forcing. The El Niño bursting behavior simulated by the low-order ENSO model can be understood in terms of the concept of homoclinic and heteroclinic connections. It is shown that this new model for ENSO amplitude modulations and irregularity, although difficult to prove, might explain some features of ENSO dynamics seen in more complex climate models and the observations.

Document Type: Article
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-TM Theory and Modeling
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 0022-4928
Date Deposited: 18 Feb 2008 17:25
Last Modified: 07 Sep 2016 13:02
URI: http://eprints.uni-kiel.de/id/eprint/5101

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