Effects of long-term variability on projections of twenty-first century dynamic sea level

Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi, Martin, Thomas, Latif, Mojib and Park, Wonsun (2015) Effects of long-term variability on projections of twenty-first century dynamic sea level Nature Climate Change, 5 (4). pp. 343-347. DOI 10.1038/nclimate2569.

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Sea-level rise1 is one of the most pressing aspects of anthropogenic global warming with far-reaching consequences for coastal societies. However, sea-level rise did2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and will strongly vary from coast to coast8, 9, 10. Here we investigate the long-term internal variability effects on centennial projections of dynamic sea level (DSL), the local departure from the globally averaged sea level. A large ensemble of global warming integrations has been conducted with a climate model, where each realization was forced by identical CO2 increase but started from different atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions. In large parts of the mid- and high latitudes, the ensemble spread of the projected centennial DSL trends is of the same order of magnitude as the globally averaged steric sea-level rise, suggesting that internal variability cannot be ignored when assessing twenty-first-century DSL trends. The ensemble spread is considerably reduced in the mid- to high latitudes when only the atmospheric initial conditions differ while keeping the oceanic initial state identical; indicating that centennial DSL projections are strongly dependent on ocean initial conditions.

Document Type: Article
Additional Information: WOS:000351842100018
Keywords: KCM
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-ME Maritime Meteorology
Kiel University
Refereed: Yes
DOI etc.: 10.1038/nclimate2569
ISSN: 1758-678X
Projects: RACE, NACLIM
Date Deposited: 19 Jan 2015 10:09
Last Modified: 13 Apr 2017 07:33
URI: http://eprints.uni-kiel.de/id/eprint/27004

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