Probabilities of future VEI ≥ 2 eruptions at the Central American Volcanic Arc: a statistical perspective based on the past centuries’ eruption record

Dzierma, Yvonne and Wehrmann, Heidi (2014) Probabilities of future VEI ≥ 2 eruptions at the Central American Volcanic Arc: a statistical perspective based on the past centuries’ eruption record International Journal of Earth Sciences, 103 (7). pp. 2029-2042. DOI 10.1007/s00531-012-0803-2.

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Abstract

A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for seven historically active volcanoes along the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA), as a pivotal empirical contribution to multi-disciplinary volcanic hazards assessment. The eruption probabilities are determined with a Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival functions, and parametric time series models are applied to describe the historical eruption records. Aside from the volcanoes that are currently in a state of eruptive activity (Santa María, Fuego, and Arenal), the highest probabilities for eruptions of VEI ≥ 2 occur at Concepción and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua, which are likely to erupt to 70–85 % within the next 10 years. Poás and Irazú in Costa Rica show a medium to high eruption probability, followed by San Miguel (El Salvador), Rincón de la Vieja (Costa Rica), and Izalco (El Salvador; 24 % within the next 10 years).

Document Type: Article
Additional Information: WOS:000343216700020
Keywords: Central American Volcanic Arc ; Eruption time series ; Kaplan–Meier estimator ; Probabilistic eruption forecasting ; Volcanic hazards
Research affiliation: Kiel University
OceanRep > SFB 574
OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB4 Dynamics of the Ocean Floor > FB4-MUHS Magmatic and Hydrothermal Systems
Refereed: Yes
DOI etc.: 10.1007/s00531-012-0803-2
ISSN: 1437-3254
Projects: SFB574
Contribution Number:
ProjectNumber
SFB 574220
Date Deposited: 08 Oct 2014 11:32
Last Modified: 23 May 2017 09:05
URI: http://eprints.uni-kiel.de/id/eprint/25733

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