Nonlinear dynamics and intermittency in a long-term copepod time series

Schmitt, F. G., Molinero, Juan Carlos and Zongo Brizard, S. (2008) Nonlinear dynamics and intermittency in a long-term copepod time series Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 13 . pp. 407-415. DOI 10.1016/j.cnsns.2006.04.005.

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Abstract

We consider the nonlinear dynamics of a long-term copepod (small crustaceans) time series sampled weekly in the Mediterranean sea from 1967 to 1992. Such population dynamics display a high variability that we consider here in an interdisciplinary study, using tools borrowed from the field of statistical physics. We analyse the extreme events of male and female abundances, and of the total population, and show that they both have heavy tailed probability density functions (pdf). We provide hyperbolic fits of the form p(x) ∼ 1/xμ+1, and estimate the value of μ using Hill’s estimator. We then study the ratio of male to female abundances, compared to the female abundances. Using conditional probability density functions and conditional averages, we show that this ratio is independent of the female density, when the latter is larger than a given threshold. This property is very useful for modelization. We also consider the product of male to female abundances, which can be ecologically related to the encounters. We show that this product is extremely intermittent, and link its pdf to the female pdf.

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