Changes in the annual cycle of heavy precipitation across the British Isles within the 21st century

Schindler, Anne, Maraun, Douglas, Toreti, Andrea and Luterbacher, Juerg (2012) Changes in the annual cycle of heavy precipitation across the British Isles within the 21st century Environmental Research Letters, 7 (4). 044029. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044029.

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Abstract

We investigate future changes in the annual cycle of heavy daily precipitation events across the
British Isles in the periods 2021–2060 and 2061–2100, relative to present day climate. Twelve
combinations of regional and global climate models forced with the A1B scenario are used.
The annual cycle is modelled as an inhomogeneous Poisson process with sinusoidal models
for location and scale parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution. Although the
peak times of the annual cycle vary considerably between projections for the 2061–2100
period, a robust shift towards later peak times is found for the south-east, while in the
north-west there is evidence for a shift towards earlier peak times. In the remaining parts of the
British Isles no changes in the peak times are projected. For 2021–2060 this signal is weak.
The annual cycle’s relative amplitude shows no robust signal, where differences in projected
changes are dominated by global climate model differences. The relative contribution of
anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability to changes in the relative amplitude
cannot be identified with the available ensemble. The results might be relevant for the
development of adequate risk-reduction strategies, for insurance companies and for the
management and planning of water resources

Document Type: Article
Additional Information: Correction: WOS:000312696400033 ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 7 (4):10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/049502 OCT-DEC 2012
Keywords: extreme precipitation, annual cycle, regional climate change, regional, climate models; REGIONAL CLIMATE-MODEL; LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION; EXTREME RAINFALL; UNITED-KINGDOM; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE; EUROPEAN CLIMATE; UK; VARIABILITY; PROJECTIONS; SCENARIOS
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-ME Maritime Meteorology
Refereed: Yes
DOI etc.: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044029
ISSN: 1748-9326
Projects: ACQWA, ENSEMBLES
Date Deposited: 22 Nov 2012 13:14
Last Modified: 01 Feb 2013 09:14
URI: http://eprints.uni-kiel.de/id/eprint/19256

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