The spatial dimension of climate-driven temperature change in the Baltic Sea and its implication for cod and sprat early life stage survival

Voss, Rüdiger, Petereit, Christoph, Schmidt, Jörn, Lehmann, Andreas, Makarchouk, Andrei and Hinrichsen, Hans-Harald (2012) The spatial dimension of climate-driven temperature change in the Baltic Sea and its implication for cod and sprat early life stage survival Journal of Marine Systems, 100-101 . pp. 1-8. DOI 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.03.009.

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Abstract

Throughout the last decades there has been a world-wide, general warming trend. In this study, we use the example of the Baltic Sea to resolve the overall estimated temperature trend into smaller, meso-scale spatial units. Afterwards, we investigate the spatially resolved potential impact of the temperature trend on larval survival for two important fish species, cod and sprat. We used two different sets of hydrographic data: (i) long-term temporally and depth-resolved data measured in situ originating from one geographic position and (ii) long-term horizontally resolved data, originating from a circulation model. In contrast to basin-wide integrated results, our modelling approach revealed different results related to smaller spatial scales. In shallow and coastal areas non-significant long-term temperature trends were observed. In some cases even decreasing temperature trends were found. Average distribution maps (1973–2010) of cod and sprat eggs and larvae confirmed the higher importance of central, deep basins as nursery grounds. Applying the temperature trends when calculating cod larval window of opportunity values, resulted in decreased durations of 1–3 days (~ 3–13%) in most areas. Sprat larval window of opportunity values mainly increased up to 4 days (~ 45%), indicating a potential reproduction advantage of sprat over cod under anticipated future temperature increase.
Highlights

► We resolve the overall positive temperature trend in the Baltic into meso-scale spatial units and investigate the impact on larval survival for two important fish species, cod and sprat. ► In shallow and coastal areas non-significant or even negative temperature trends occurred. ► Cod larval window of opportunity values decreased by 1–3 days (~ 3–13%). ► Sprat larval window of opportunity values increased up to 4 days (~ 45%). ► Sprat will have a reproduction advantage over cod under anticipated future temperature change.

Document Type: Article
Keywords: Evolutionary Ecology of Marine Fishes; Oceanography; Physical environment; Long-term temperature trends; Temperature-related fish stock-specific processes; ALKOR
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-TM Theory and Modeling
OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB3 Marine Ecology > FB3-EV Evolutionary Ecology of Marine Fishes
Kiel University
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence
Refereed: Yes
DOI etc.: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.03.009
ISSN: 0924-7963
Projects: UNCOVER, FACTS, CAVIAR, Future Ocean, AQUASHIFT
Date Deposited: 31 May 2012 09:07
Last Modified: 13 Jul 2017 09:03
URI: http://eprints.uni-kiel.de/id/eprint/14345

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