Natural variability of the central Pacific El Niño event on multi-centennial timescales

Yeh, S.-W., Kirtman, B. P., Kug, J.-S., Park, Wonsun and Latif, Mojib (2011) Natural variability of the central Pacific El Niño event on multi-centennial timescales Geophysical Research Letters, 38 . L02704. DOI 10.1029/2010GL045886.

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Abstract

There is an evidence of the increasing intensity as well as occurrence frequency of the so-called central Pacific (CP) El Niño events since the 1990s. We examine whether such an increase in the frequency of CP El Niño may be a manifestation of natural climate variability. A control simulation of the Kiel Climate Model, run for 4200 years with the present values of greenhouse gases, exhibit large variations of the occurrence frequency of the CP El Niño versus the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño. A model simulates to some extent changes in the occurrence ratio of CP and EP El Niño in comparison with the observations. Therefore, we can not exclude the possibility that an increasing of occurrence frequency of CP El Niño during recent decades in the observation could be a part of natural variability in the tropical climate system.

Document Type: Article
Keywords: Meteorology; Climatology; El Nino
Research affiliation: OceanRep > GEOMAR > FB1 Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics > FB1-ME Maritime Meteorology
OceanRep > The Future Ocean - Cluster of Excellence
OceanRep > SFB 754
Kiel University
OceanRep > SFB 754 > A1
Refereed: Yes
DOI etc.: 10.1029/2010GL045886
ISSN: 0094-8276
Projects: SFB754, Future Ocean
Expeditions/Models:
Date Deposited: 13 Dec 2010 10:28
Last Modified: 20 Jun 2017 08:46
URI: http://eprints.uni-kiel.de/id/eprint/10452

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